Do Home Prices Drop During a Recession? Here’s What the Data – and Georgia – say

A Recession Does Not Mean Falling Prices

Recession talk is heating up again — and if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you’re not alone in wondering: Is now the right time to make a move?

It’s a common question, especially with fears of economic slowdowns making headlines. Most people assume a recession means home prices will crash, just like they did in 2008. But here’s the truth:

📈 In 4 of the Last 6 U.S. Recessions, Home Prices Actually Went Up

That’s right — the housing crash of 2008 was the exception, not the rule. According to historical data, most recessions haven’t resulted in falling home values. In fact, during the majority of past economic downturns, home prices either stayed stable or continued rising.

So why was 2008 so different? It was driven by a unique combination of factors — risky lending, overbuilt inventory, and financial system issues that don’t reflect today’s market conditions.

🏠 What’s Different About the Housing Market Today?

  • Inventory remains tight, meaning demand still outweighs supply in many areas.

  • Lending standards are stronger, reducing the risk of mass foreclosures.

  • Buyer demand is picking back up as mortgage rates begin to settle.

In other words: today’s real estate market isn’t heading down the same path we saw in 2008 — and in many places, home values are still rising.


📊 Let’s Talk Georgia: A Closer Look at Our Market

While national data shows encouraging trends, Georgia’s real estate market stands out for its resilience and long-term growth.

  • Home values are still climbing: As of early 2025, the average home value in Georgia is $326,316 — a 1.0% increase over the past year (Zillow).

  • Massive long-term growth: Georgia’s median home price jumped 141.2% over the past decade, from $132,718 in 2013 to $320,082 in 2023 (Athens CEO).

  • Atlanta continues to thrive: Atlanta’s median home sale price reached $415,000 in late 2024 — up 7% year-over-year and nearly 36% higher than in 2019 (New York Post).

These numbers highlight what many buyers and sellers across the state already feel: the housing market in Georgia remains strong — even in the face of economic uncertainty.


💡 So What Does This Mean for You?

If you’ve been holding off on buying or selling due to fear of a recession, now may be the time to reconsider. History — and current market data — suggest that real estate continues to be a smart, stable investment.


Let’s Make a Plan That Works for You

Whether you’re looking to buy your first home, upgrade, downsize, or sell for top dollar, we’re here to help you navigate the market with confidence — not fear.

📞 Call or text us at (762) 244-8813
🌐 Visit us at modernrealestategeorgia.com